Trump & The Black Vote

This weekend, Donald Trump visited a black church in Detroit. He was warmly received, and his appearance is bound to pay some dividends.

Senior Pastor Lorenzo Sewell, who organized Trump’s Detroit meeting, thanked Donald Trump, saying, “President Trump, I’m so humbled that you would be here. President Obama never came to the hood. . . President Joe Biden, he went to the big NAACP dinner, but he never came to the hood. So, thank you.”

But don’t fall for the exuberant narrative that Trump will win a majority of the black vote. He’s not going to do that. But he doesn’t have to win the black vote in order to win swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Four years ago, Biden won 92% of the black vote in Michigan and Pennsylvania. If he gets anywhere below 80%, you can statistically make a strong case that Biden loses both states and the election is over. And that appears to be a real possibility.

A new poll just found that Biden is only getting 55% of black voters in Michigan and 56% in Pennsylvania. In addition, CNN’s top political analyst said today that he is “speechless” over Biden’s erosion of support among black voters, as well as Trump’s gains among those same voters.

By the way, too many GOP consultants still say that cultural issues and the trans issue aren’t important in the election. Well, the biggest applause Trump got from his audience at the black church came when he said, “I’ll keep the radical left-wing gender ideology away from our youth” and “I will keep men out of women’s sports.” The reaction was so visceral and emotional that it surprised Trump.