The Biden Bump

I spent the weekend monitoring the news, and heard far too many GOP consultants and politicians talking about how they're going to sweep everything this November.  As the campaign season goes, we're still early in the first quarter, but they're already spiking the football! 

Most Republican consultants and "leaders" predicted that the redistricting process was going to be a huge win that would by itself guarantee a Republican takeover of the House this November. They were wrong. 

At best, the redistricting process may turn out to be a wash, or maybe a small gain. And that's only because of a totally unexpected victory from a liberal court in New York, and Gov. Ron DeSantis in Florida rejected his legislature's plan and drew his own map.

Meanwhile, the latest Washington Post poll shows President Biden's numbers are ticking up, which may be a delayed "war bounce." It also shows that the midterm elections are a tossup, with a slight advantage for the Democrats.

I know the Post's polling tends to be flawed. But five major polls released in the past two weeks show the November elections could go either way.

Here's my advice to the consulting class: Voters don't care about historical trends. Struggling families want answers.

They want to be able to pay their mortgage, send their kids to college, put gas in their car and food on the table. They want to stop the nonsense in our schools and they want to secure our border. 

The candidates who can best address these concerns with real solutions are most likely to prevail this November.