Road To The White House

More than 80 million people have already voted either by mail-in ballots or in-person early voting. The rest of the country will cast their votes today. As you know, the popular vote does not elect the president. It does, however, decide the winner of each state’s vote in the Electoral College.

Electoral votes are based on the state’s representation in Congress. Every state gets one representative in the House and two senators. So, the minimum number of electoral votes a state can have is three. Florida, which has 28 representatives in the House plus two senators, has a total of 30 votes in the Electoral College.

Two states – Maine and Nebraska – award their Electoral College votes by congressional district, with the statewide winner getting two additional votes.

Maine has a total of four electoral votes. Trump is likely to win one of Maine’s two congressional districts, with Harris taking three of Maine’s Electoral College votes. The reverse is expected in Nebraska, with Trump and Harris splitting those Electoral College votes 4 to 1.

Certain states are considered guaranteed wins or safe states for each party. Here’s how the safe states and their Electoral College votes align for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

That leaves seven toss-up states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states have a total of 93 Electoral College votes.

New Hampshire and Virginia are in Harris’s column even though the Trump campaign and some pollsters have felt that either state could be flipped.

If New Hampshire is very close and Virginia is within a couple of points, it could be a sign that Donald Trump is going to have a good night, even if he loses those states. If Trump actually wins either state, and particularly Virginia, then it’s “Goodbye, Kamala” in my view.

Florida is considered to be solidly in Trump’s corner. He won it by three points four years ago. Recent polls have shown Trump up 10 to 14 points this year. If he is winning heavily Hispanic areas like Miami by large margins, that could be an early sign that other Hispanic areas of the country in states like Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania may also go his way.

As voting ends west of the Mississippi, watch Iowa. Two polls came out over the weekend. One was shocking because it had Harris up three points. The other poll had Trump up by 10 points, which seems more likely.

There is some speculation that older women have swung in Harris’s direction. There are indications that the same thing may be happening in Wisconsin. Trump should easily win Iowa. If it’s too close to call, he’s likely in trouble.

If Pennsylvania and North Carolina are both called tonight for one candidate, the odds are overwhelming that the election is over.

If Trump wins Pennsylvania but loses North Carolina, he still has a path to victory if he wins Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.

If Pennsylvania goes for Harris and Trump holds Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, he must carry either Michigan or Wisconsin in order to win the election.