Poll Position

Earlier in the week, I urged readers not to put too much faith in the presidential polling at this point. So much can change between now and November. Well, the latest Fox News poll offers a cautionary tale.

Among registered voters, Joe Biden has taken his first lead in six months. Biden now leads Donald Trump 50% to 48%. Even in a five-way race, Biden still wins 43% to 42%. Biden’s lead comes in spite of voters preferring Donald Trump on major issues like the economy, immigration, and the Israel/Hamas war.

I don’t know why Fox is still focused on registered voters five months from the election. No one should be doing registered voter polls at this point. We get better information from likely voter polls.

But, as we all know and tend to forget, whether the poll is registered voters or likely voters, what ultimately matters most is the Electoral College count.

For example, one recent poll in Arizona, which Biden continues to claim that he won, Trump is leading a head-to-head matchup by seven and by four in a multi-candidate race.

Moreover, polls show Trump leading in the swing states of Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, while he’s tied in Michigan, Virginia, Wisconsin, and even in Minnesota, which hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate in 52 years!

If Donald Trump actually wins all those states, he would win the White House with 335 Electoral College votes to 203 for Joe Biden. And, of course, Biden would win reelection if he carries Virginia and the “Blue Wall” of upper midwestern states holds up for him.