Gerrymandering Madness

After the 2020 Census was completed, many pundits predicted that Republicans could flip control of the House of Representatives through the redistricting process alone.  That seemed like a reasonable assumption given that Republicans have complete control in 23 states, compared to just 14 states for the Democrats. 

But the redistricting process, which will tremendously influence the course of elections for the next ten years, isn't going well for GOP.

With just a handful of states left still working on their new political maps, the respected Cook Political Report writes that Democrats have the advantage in redistricting.  Instead of Republicans picking up five or six House seats through redistricting, Democrats are set to gain a handful of seats.  

How can that be?  Well, for the most part, Republicans were cautious with their redistricting efforts.  They didn't want to be accused of "gerrymandering," and they know the Biden Justice Department and other left-wing groups are eager to sue. 

At the same time, Democrats were very aggressive in gerrymandering the maps in the states they controlled. 

For example, Democrats wiped out about half of the existing Republican House seats in New York.  In Maryland, there is only one Republican in the entire congressional delegation.  But Democrats targeted his seat with a vengeance, reducing its GOP-voting strength by 20 points. 

Meanwhile, Republicans have suffered a number of legal setbacks.  Courts in Alabama, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania have struck down Republican maps and/or taken over the redistricting process in those states.

Just to be clear:  I'm not suggesting that Republicans are going to lose seats in the November elections.  But it is clear that redistricting has not been the big advantage for the GOP that many had predicted.