Early Races To Watch

The general consensus regarding the 2022 midterm elections seems to have settled on a possible split decision:  The House will go Republican, while Democrats have a chance to hold the Senate. 

Of course, Democrats are hoping for a major upset, bucking history, Joe Biden’s low approval ratings and the mood of the country.  But given that Nancy Pelosi is suddenly speculating on her retirement, the House seems certain to flip.

The size of the Red wave tonight will determine how large the House GOP majority is, and whether Republicans take back the upper chamber.  With that in mind, here are some key races to watch as the polls close. 

In Virginia, Governor Glenn Youngkin, who shocked the pundits last year with his surprise victory, has been rallying conservative voters in three key House races. 

Watch the Second District in the Virginia Tidewater region.  Republican Jen Kiggans should unseat incumbent Democrat Elaine Luria.  If she doesn’t, it could suggest a disappointing night for Republicans.

Heading north on I-95, two districts outside Washington, D.C., are key battlegrounds.  In the Seventh District, Yesli Vega is making a serious run against Democrat incumbent Abigail Spanberger. 

To the north, Hung Cao is taking the fight to incumbent Jennifer Wexton in the Democrat-friendly Tenth District.  If Cao wins, the Red wave could be big.

Continuing north to New England, the Republican Party has been shrinking here for years.  But tonight, there could be a strong GOP comeback. 

If Don Bolduc defeats incumbent Democrat Senator Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire, Republicans are virtually guaranteed to control the Senate.  And if the Red wave is really big, the GOP could flip Democrat House seats in Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire and Rhode Island.

In Pennsylvania, I do not expect a clear winner tonight in the Senate contest.  State officials have made it clear that it’s going to take several days to count all the mail-in ballots, and legal challenges have already been filed.

But we will be watching to see if Jim Bognet can capture PA-8, which includes Scranton.  It will be a big symbolic victory for Republicans if they can win Joe Biden’s hometown.

Looking to the South, there are key Senate races in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina.  Sen. Rubio appears safe in Florida, and Republican Ted Budd should hold North Carolina for the GOP.  He is up six points in the latest poll.

In Georgia, we’ll be watching to see how big Gov. Kemp’s margin of victory is over Stacey Abrams, and whether Herschel Walker wins outright tonight or is forced into a December runoff.  A Walker win is critical to retaking the Senate.