D-Day In The Old Dominion

The Virginia governor's race has been a dead heat for weeks. But last night, Fox News shocked the political establishment with its latest poll showing a big swing toward the Republican candidate, Glenn Youngkin. The Youngkin campaign's internal polls reportedly show he's leading former Governor Terry McAuliffe by a narrower margin of four points. 

No one should be celebrating yet. Nearly 870,000 people have already voted, and much of that early vote is coming out of Democrat-heavy Northern Virginia.

Of course, we're very concerned about election integrity, and thousands of conservatives have volunteered to serve as poll watchers. They have been present at early voting locations across the state. 

It's also just been reported that the McAuliffe campaign has hired Clinton lawyer Marc Elias, who is known for aggressive election challenges. Michael Sussmann, a former associate of Elias's, was recently charged in the Durham investigation. 

Analysts and political observers say that Virginia's off-year election results often foreshadow the mood of the country heading into the mid-term congressional elections the following year. 

For example, in 2009, Republican Bob McDonnell won the Virginia governor's race and Republicans won big in the 2010 mid-term elections. In 2017, Democrat Ralph Northam won the governor's race and Democrats won big in the 2018 mid-term elections. 

So, if Youngkin wins, it's could well mean bad news for Democrats next year. But Virginia has been trending Blue in recent years, and Tuesday's results will say much about the direction of that trend.