Be Careful What You Wish For

That was Donald Trump’s reaction over the weekend to the news of an insurrection in Russia against Vladimir Putin.  The insurrection was led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the mercenary Wagner Group. 

Saturday morning, many Americans woke up to headlines that Prigozhin was marching on Moscow with 25,000 Wagner Group soldiers.  That’s what a real insurrection looks like!  But he backed down after striking a deal with Putin’s regime.

Initially, the Biden White House and the U.S. foreign policy establishment were absolutely giddy that Putin was on his way out.  Many felt these events proved they were right all along to go all in on Ukraine. 

Yet, as of now, Prigozhin has been exiled to Belarus, and his Wagner troops are being absorbed by the Russian military. 

Who wouldn’t want to see ex-KGB officer Vladimir Putin ousted from the Kremlin? 

Well, ponder this:  There isn’t a “rule of law” conservative or a progressive liberal in Russia who is likely to take Putin’s place.  It is very likely that whoever succeeded Putin would be a bigger problem for the U.S. and the West.

Many popular public figures in Russia believe that the West is trying to take down their country.  Anti-Western attitudes were on the rise before the Ukrainian war.  Leading voices in the Russian military are frustrated that Putin has not used tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. 

By the way, Prigozhin’s army was partially made up of former criminals released from Russian jails.  They were let out if they agreed to fight with the Wagner group.  He ran those forces with an iron fist. If you were caught undermining the unit or violating orders, you’re executed with a sledgehammer. 

All of this doesn’t even get to the question of “What if.”  What if Prigozhin had continued his march on Moscow and a civil war erupted in a nation with 6,000 nuclear weapons, many of them pointed at the United States? 

I’m sure Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Antony Blinken and the Pentagon geniuses who couldn’t manage a competent withdrawal from Afghanistan have a plan in place to ensure none of those weapons fall into the wrong hands. 

And if you believe that, I’ve got a bridge to sell you!

If, for the first time in decades, Putin really feels like his position is in serious danger, this could be a perfect time for the U.S. and our allies to push for a cease fire and for negotiations to end the nightmare in Ukraine.