2024 Update

In a number of states now, particularly the Rust Belt states, it appears that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s independent candidacy is hurting Donald Trump more than Joe Biden. In head-to-head matchups, Trump leads or ties Biden in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But with Kennedy in the race, Biden leads all three. 

That said, Fox News, which has historically underestimated Trump’s vote, just released new polling results in four states. They show Trump winning Florida by a slightly larger margin than he won in 2020. The other results must be concerning to the Biden campaign.

In Arizona and Nevada, Trump has a five-point lead over Joe Biden, with and without third-party candidates. Biden won both states four years ago.

The next surprise is Virginia, which was not close at all in 2020. Biden won Virginia by a 10-point landslide. We all know why – the state is being “fundamentally transformed” through massive immigration and the massive growth of the federal government, which is turning suburban and exurban counties blue.

But the Fox poll found Biden and Trump tied in Virginia. And the Fox News poll isn’t the only survey finding a close race in the Old Dominion. There is no scenario that political analysts are looking at that requires Donald Trump to win Virginia in order to win the White House.

If he wins the states he won four years ago and secures Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, he can win the White House with just a couple of congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska, which split their Electoral College votes. Under this scenario, Trump doesn’t even need Michigan or Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, Biden is rapidly losing the one advantage he did have – money. The outrageous Manhattan verdict turbocharged Trump’s fundraising.

The Trump campaign and a pro-Trump superPAC have raised $370 million, with a significant portion of that figure coming in just the past week. Last night, Trump brought in another $12 million at a fundraiser in liberal Silicon Valley.