2024 Update

The latest Economist/YouGov poll finds Joe Biden and Donald Trump tied at 44%. Assuming the poll is accurate, a tie would most likely translate into a comfortable electoral college victory for the GOP candidate because the Democrat vote is concentrated in a few states.

What about the other candidates? Joe Biden led Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by three points – 44% to 41%. And what about Nikki Haley?

Well, a few weeks ago, one poll got a lot of attention for suggesting that she would beat Biden by double digits. That poll was insane. Everyone knew it was a ludicrous effort by the money wing of the GOP establishment to boost Haley.

This new Economist poll finds Haley losing to Biden by five points. The explanation is simple.

Trump and DeSantis are populist conservatives who appeal to working-class voters, and they’re unafraid of fighting the culture war. Haley is an old-guard, establishment Republican. There’s little evidence she can attract blue-collar, working-class voters or inspire the values base of the GOP to turn out in droves.

War hero John McCain was supposedly the best choice to hold the White House in 2008. Mitt Romney, a squeaky clean moderate, was supposedly the best choice to win in 2012. They both got clobbered by Barack Hussein Obama because neither was willing to fight on populist or values issues.