2024 Update

Fox News released a new round of polling yesterday.  There were a number of interesting results.  For example, there has been a massive 33-point swing over the past three years in the number of people who seriously doubt Joe Biden’s mental fitness to be president.  That’s a serious problem for Biden – and the country!

Looking ahead to the 2024 race, every matchup is close.  Four GOP candidates (Trump, Haley, Pence and Ramaswamy) narrowly beat Biden, while Biden narrowly leads three candidates (DeSantis, Christie and Scott.)

Here’s something else that jumped out at me:  In this poll, Trump has 48% to Biden’s 46%.  All other the GOP candidates, including those who led Biden, ranged from 45% to 41%, and none of them have gone through the left-wing media’s meat grinder yet. 

They haven’t had to face what John McCain, Mitt Romney or Donald Trump had to face.  In other words, they haven’t been dirtied up yet.

Something else seems obvious to me.

Based on these results, a significant percentage of Republican voters -- perhaps as many as 7% (the difference between Trump’s 48% and Chris Christie’s 41% in the poll) -- are willing to say right now that they will only vote for Donald Trump.  That’s more than 5,000,000 votes!

Maybe there are some suburban voters we might get if Trump isn’t the nominee.  But what is never mentioned is that there are voters who are only Trump voters. 

They might hate the left, but they also despise the corporate, establishment GOP – the Republican Party of globalism, the party of endless wars and the party of cutting your mother’s Social Security check. 

But they love Trump because he’s a fighter.  And it’s not at all clear to me that they will show up for a typical Republican, even someone who says they are a “Reagan Republican.”

I admit that this is a problem for the GOP.  But I continue to believe, no matter who is nominated, that the only future for the Republican Party is to be a party that speaks the language of populist conservatism and appeals to Middle America.

In related news:

• There are more calls for Democrats to dump Kamala Harris.
• The rift between Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and the Democrat Party is growing.
• Andrew Yang is reportingly talking to activists about a running as a third-party candidate in 2024.
• And no matter what Joe Manchin does in 2024 (run for reelection or for president), it likely won’t be as a Democrat.